AI検索エンジン『Genspark』とは？使い方やPerplexityとの違いについて解説！

Based on the most current data and information, here’s a comprehensive overview of the latest trends in the Chinese economy:

Recent Economic Data Shows Weakening Momentum

Latest Trends in the Chinese Economy

The latest economic indicators released on December 15, 2025, reveal concerning trends across multiple sectors:

Retail Sales Hit Post-COVID Low China’s retail sales grew just 1.3% year-on-year in November 2025, the weakest performance since December 2022 when the country abruptly ended its “zero-COVID” restrictions. This figure fell dramatically short of the 2.9% growth recorded in October and the 2.8% market forecast. Growth momentum has now slowed for six consecutive months, indicating persistent weakness in consumer confidence and household spending. Reuters

Industrial Output Slows Factory output increased by 4.8% year-on-year, marking the weakest pace in 15 months (since August 2024) and missing the 5.0% forecast. This slowdown reflects both weakening domestic demand and growing international trade barriers.

Historic Investment Decline Deepens Fixed asset investment contracted 2.6% in January-November 2025, accelerating from the 1.7% decline reported through October. This marks China’s first annual investment decline in three decades, with all three major components—property, infrastructure, and manufacturing—falling simultaneously, which is historically rare. The New York Times

2026 Economic Policy Framework: Central Economic Work Conference Outcomes

China’s leadership outlined key priorities for 2026 at the Central Economic Work Conference held December 10-11, 2025:

1. More Proactive Fiscal Policy

• Maintaining necessary fiscal deficits while emphasizing fiscal discipline
• Following the principle of “frugal with small money, generous with big money”
• Addressing high local government debt levels while funding critical projects
• Expected fiscal deficit to remain around 4% of GDP

2. Moderately Loose Monetary Policy

• First time in over a decade that China has signaled “moderately loose” monetary stance
• Flexible use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions
• Focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and supporting SMEs
• However, analysts suggest cheaper credit will primarily facilitate debt refinancing rather than drive new growth

3. Boosting Domestic Consumption

• “Domestic demand as the main driver” emphasized as top priority
• Special campaigns to boost consumption
• Plans to increase urban and rural resident incomes
• Eliminating unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector
• Expanding supply of high-quality goods and services

China Briefing

Structural Challenges Persist

The Supply-Demand Contradiction The Conference readout explicitly acknowledged a “prominent contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand.” Despite promises to boost consumption, Beijing continues emphasizing investment and manufacturing upgrades, cementing concerns that China isn’t ready to abandon its production-driven growth model for one focused on household spending.

Property Crisis Continues

• New home prices fell further in November 2025
• Property investment plunged 15.9% in January-November
• Real estate developer China Vanke is scrambling to avoid default, signaling that state financial support may be reaching its limits
• The IMF estimates fixing property sector problems within three years will cost equivalent to 5% of GDP
• The property sector, which once comprised 25% of China’s GDP, continues to drag down household wealth (70% of which is tied to real estate)

Export Dependency Under Threat While exports have been remarkably resilient—growing about 8% in 2025 despite US tariffs—this strategy faces mounting challenges:

• China’s trade surplus is on track to hit $1.2 trillion in 2025, roughly the size of Poland’s economy
• Growing international backlash: French President Macron threatened tariffs, calling China’s trade imbalances “unsustainable”
• Mexico approved tariff hikes up to 50% on Chinese imports
• Trade partners worldwide are bristling at China’s massive surplus and erecting barriers

Growth Forecasts and Targets

2025 Performance

• China is expected to meet its “around 5%” growth target for 2025
• IMF upgraded projections to 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
• First three quarters of 2025 saw 5.2% growth

2026 Outlook

• Government advisers suggest China will maintain an “around 5%” target for 2026
• World Bank projects more conservative 4.4% growth in 2026
• 2026 marks the start of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), making it a pivotal year

Bright Spots and Strategic Focus

Innovation-Driven Development

• Continued investment in “new quality productive forces” (NQPF)
• Six key future industries identified: quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen/nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence (humanoid robots), and 6G communications
• “AI +” integration across manufacturing and other sectors
• High-tech industries like green energy and aerospace showing rapid growth

Market Opening Initiatives

• Further liberalization of service sector
• Expansion of free trade zones
• Hainan Free Trade Port launching island-wide customs zone on December 18, 2025, with zero tariffs on 74% of goods
• Streamlined cross-border data regulations in FTZs

Carbon Goals Maintained

• Reaffirmed commitment to peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060
• China’s emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months through September 2025
• First-ever absolute carbon reduction target: 7-10% below peak levels by 2035

Key Takeaways

China’s economy stands at a critical juncture as it enters 2026. While achieving its 5% growth target for 2025, the economy faces mounting headwinds: weak domestic consumption, deepening property crisis, and unsustainable export reliance amid rising global protectionism. The government’s dual focus on consumption and investment reveals an ongoing struggle to rebalance from a production-driven to a consumption-driven model.

For 2026, expect more targeted, efficiency-driven policies rather than broad stimulus, with selective support for emerging industries and incremental improvements in market access. The success of China’s economic transition will depend on whether it can genuinely boost household income and consumption while managing structural reforms in an increasingly challenging global environment.